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Title Description
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 050520
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Isaias, which is moving rapidly north-northeastward over
eastern Quebec.

A small low pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of
Bermuda is producing minimal shower activity. This low is forecast
to drift southwestward during the next couple of days, and any
development is expected to be slow to occur due to dry air and
increasing upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias (AT4/AL092020) ...ISAIAS BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 the center of Isaias was located near 45.3, -72.5 with movement NNE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisory Number 32 Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050245
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020
 
...ISAIAS BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF MONTREAL QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the
Merrimack River, Massachusetts.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Merrimack River Massachusetts to Stonington Maine
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
during the next few hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Isaias was located near latitude 45.3 North, longitude 72.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
38 mph (61 km/h), and this general motion is expected with a
decrease in forward speed through Wednesday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with 
higher gusts, mainly over water to the southeast of the center. 
Continued weakening is expected, and the winds are expected to drop 
below tropical-storm force during the next few hours.  The 
post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate over southeastern 
Canada Wednesday night or Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the southeast of the the center.  The NOAA automated station at 
Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire recently reported sustained winds of 
46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h) at an 
elevation of 63 ft (19 m).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical-storm conditions are expected for a few more
hours in the tropical storm warning area in southern New England.
These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.
 
Gale-force winds are possible over portions of southeastern Quebec
for a few more hours.  See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along
and near the track of Isaias across Southern Quebec.  Additional
rainfall of up to an inch is possible across western and northern
Maine overnight.
 
As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate
and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood
stage Wednesday.  Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also
be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.
 
TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible across central and
eastern Maine for the next several hours.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias will affect the mid-Atlantic and 
Northeast coasts of the United States through tonight. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 32 Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020

000
WTNT24 KNHC 050245
TCMAT4
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS TO STONINGTON MAINE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N  72.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  33 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 360SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N  72.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.0N  73.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 49.1N  71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 52.6N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 54.0N  68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.3N  72.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 32 Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

000
WTNT44 KNHC 050246
TCDAT4
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020
 
Satellite and radar data, along with surface observations, indicate
that Isaias has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with a weak baroclinic zone over New England and
southeastern Canada.  Thus, it is being designated a post-tropical
cyclone.  The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based mainly on 
a recent observation at the Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire, and 
these winds are occurring over the Gulf of Maine well to the 
southeast of the center.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to 
weaken further, with winds dropping below 35 kt early tomorrow.  
After that, the system is forecast to be absorbed into a large 
baroclinic low over southeastern Canada between 36-48 h.
 
The initial motion remains north-northeastward or 020/33 kt.  A
continued general north-northeastward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed by the
larger low.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast and is in the center of the tightly-clustered track
guidance models.
 
While Isaias is now post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center
will continue to issue advisories until the Tropical Storm Warning
can be discontinued along the coast of the United States.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power
outages will continue over portions of New England for a few more
hours.
 
2. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to 
moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast 
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below 
flood stage Wednesday.  Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast 
will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river 
flooding.
 
3.  The threat of tornadoes will continue over portions of Maine 
for a few more hours.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 45.3N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  05/1200Z 49.1N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  06/0000Z 52.6N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  06/1200Z 54.0N  68.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32 Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020

000
FONT14 KNHC 050246
PWSAT4
                                                                    
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020               
0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PORTLAND ME    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CONCORD NH     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Graphics Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Aug 2020 02:49:40 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Aug 2020 03:23:32 GMT
Local Statement for Caribou, ME Issued at 547 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
Local Statement for New York City, NY Issued at 849 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
Local Statement for Boston, MA Issued at 1104 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
Local Statement for Albany, NY Issued at 1107 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020
Local Statement for Portland, ME Issued at 1135 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Eastern Pacific

Title Description
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 050521
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 4 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south or southwest of
the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for at least gradual
development through early next week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
There are no tropical cyclones at this time. No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 05 Aug 2020 05:24:07 GMT

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